The core message of Christoph’s Antler session was that the seed-to-Series A transition has become a much tougher filter, but founders can materially improve their odds by structuring their seed journey around a small set of measurable factors. The host framed the session as addressing one of the most difficult startup transitions, noting that AI makes company creation easier while increasing noise for investors. Christoph then positioned Series A as the point where startups typically get the “fuel in the tank” needed to pursue outlier outcomes, arguing that raising Series A is highly consequential for companies aiming to scale significantly.

He first showed the tension in the European venture market: more companies are being started, while fewer early-stage rounds are being raised. According to the data he cited, the number of companies started in Europe rose more than 50% up to 2025, with German data suggesting the first half of 2026 was another 50% above the second half of 2025. At the same time, pre-seed, seed, and Series A rounds fell by roughly 40–50% over the same period. Christoph described a current 50-to-one ratio between companies started and companies raising Series A, about twice what it was a few years earlier, while acknowledging the comparison is imperfect because company formation and Series A timing do not happen in the same year.

The presentation then narrowed to Antler’s research base: nearly 28,000 funding rounds over roughly 25 years, more than 6,000 companies started in Germany, and more than 300 founders raising a Series A. In Germany, around 19% of companies go from seed to Series A, better than many other European markets but down from above 30% a few years ago. Christoph presented a “golden formula” of five factors: a seed round larger than €2 million, less than six months from pre-seed to seed, an institutional VC investor, three or more backers, and pre-seed investors following on. Companies meeting all five had a 47% chance of raising Series A versus 7% otherwise.

He unpacked each factor with practical implications. Larger seed rounds help, but graduation rates appear to flatten from roughly €2 million upward, meaning the round must be sizable but not extraordinary. Velocity matters strongly: companies moving from pre-seed to seed in under six months saw about one-in-two raise Series A, compared with about one-in-seven for those taking more than 24 months. Christoph also advised against relying on a single dominant investor, saying three or more backers can help, and argued that professional VC investors show the highest Series A graduation rates. Finally, he recommended getting pre-seed investors to follow on, but still bringing in a fresh lead investor, since a fresh lead increased the next round size by about 60–70%.