Greg Schmitt’s core message was that LP capital in venture is becoming more selective, more concentrated, and more dependent on access to the very best managers. Speaking from the perspective of MEAG, the asset manager of Munich Re, he framed the session as a shift away from how VCs invest in startups and toward the question of “which funds really get funded.” MEAG has invested in venture for more than twenty years on behalf of insurance clients, and Schmitt used that long-term LP perspective to explain how today’s fundraising environment is being reshaped by concentration at both the deal level and the fund level.

He first highlighted that the total amount of capital raised across the VC ecosystem has decreased, while the share going to the 30 largest brands has increased massively. He connected this to the rise of very large companies and models, citing names such as Anthropic, SpaceX, and xAI as examples of businesses attracting significant capital, which in turn pushes the firms backing them to raise much larger funds. He compared this with buyout fund history, noting that when he started in the industry fifteen years ago, a buyout fund of size would have been significantly smaller than $15 billion, whereas some venture firms are now raising at that scale.

Schmitt then turned to performance, arguing that average venture returns are not good enough from an LP perspective. He showed twenty-year trailing IRRs for U.S. venture capital, where the best funds reached 19.7% IRR while the median was around 10%. He compared that with a 13% average for buyout funds over the same reference period, emphasizing that LPs with the ability to allocate across venture, buyout, growth, and other segments must justify the additional risk and dispersion of venture. Selection, in his view, is central: LPs must find managers who can attract the strongest founders, because venture’s upside is concentrated in the best-performing funds.

The later part of the talk focused on liquidity, European value capture, and current investment themes. Schmitt challenged the idea that venture funds are truly ten-year vehicles, pointing to DPI figures such as 1.3 for 2010 vintage funds after ten years and 0.7 for 2015 vintage funds today. Still, he argued that tremendous value is coming and expects DPI to rise significantly this year and next year. In Europe, he noted that more European GPs are now backing top private European companies than in past top exits. He closed by describing MEAG’s approach: build long-term GP relationships, remain stage- and geography-agnostic, seek global best managers, and watch themes including liquidity, concentration, the underserved middle, secondaries, European initiatives such as KfW, and defense technology exposure, which he said is almost entirely venture and almost entirely U.S. in MEAG’s portfolio.